What is the purpose of pre-analysis plans, and how should they be designed? We propose a principal-agent model where a decision-maker relies on selective but truthful reports by an analyst. The analyst has data access, and non-aligned objectives. In this model, the implementation of statistical decision rules (tests, estimators) requires an incentive-compatible mechanism. We first characterize which decision rules can be implemented. We then characterize optimal statistical decision rules subject to implementability. We show that implementation requires pre-analysis plans. Focussing specifically on hypothesis tests, we show that optimal rejection rules pre-register a valid test for the case when all data is reported, and make worst-case assumptions about unreported data. Optimal tests can be found as a solution to a linear-programming problem.

翻译：预分析计划有何目的？应如何设计？本文提出一个委托-代理模型，其中决策者依赖于分析师选择性但真实的报告。分析师拥有数据访问权限且目标不一致。在该模型中，统计决策规则（检验、估计量）的实施需要激励相容机制。我们首先刻画可实施的决策规则特征，进而刻画可实施性约束下的最优统计决策规则。研究表明，实施需要预分析计划。特别地，以假设检验为例，最优拒绝规则需预先登记一个适用于全部数据汇报场景的有效检验，并对未汇报数据采取最坏情况假设。最优检验可通过求解线性规划问题获得。