Post-pandemic world has thrown up several challenges, such as, high inflation, low growth, high debt, collapse of economies, political instability, job losses, lowering of income in addition to damages caused natural disasters, more convincing attributed to climate change, apart from existing inequalities. Efforts are being made to mitigate these challenges at various levels. To the best of the knowledge of the author, most of the prior researches have focussed on specific scenarios, use cases, inter-relationships between couple of sectors and more so on optimal policies, such as, impact of carbon tax on individuals, interaction between taxes and welfare, etc. However, not much effort have been made to understand the actual impact on individual agents due to diverse policy changes and how agents cope with changing economic dynamics. This paper considers progressive deteriorating conditions of increase in expense, degrading environmental utility, increase in taxation, decrease in welfare and lowering of income with recourse to inherited properties, credits and return on investments, and tries to understand how the agents cope with the changing situations using an agent based model with matrices related to savings, credits, assets. Results indicate that collapse of agents' economic conditions can be quite fast, sudden and drastic for all income groups in most cases.
翻译:后疫情时代带来了多重挑战,包括高通胀、低增长、高债务、经济崩溃、政治不稳定、失业、收入下降,以及除现有不平等问题外,由气候变化(更令人信服的原因)导致的自然灾害所造成的损失。各方正在不同层面努力缓解这些挑战。据作者所知,以往的研究大多聚焦于特定情景、用例、少数部门间的相互关系,以及更多关于最优政策(如碳税对个体的影响、税收与福利之间的相互作用等)的探讨。然而,对于因多样化政策变化而对个体主体产生的实际影响,以及主体如何应对不断变化的经济动态,此前并未投入足够的研究努力。本文考量了支出增加、环境效用恶化、税收加重、福利减少及收入下降(辅以继承财产、信贷和投资回报)等逐步恶化的条件,并尝试利用基于主体的模型(结合储蓄、信贷、资产相关矩阵)来理解主体如何应对变化中的情境。结果表明,在多数情况下,各收入群体的主体经济状况可能以相当快速、突然且剧烈的方式崩溃。