The usual FIFA World Cup-TM group stage format is eight groups of four teams for a total of 32 teams. The top two teams from each group advance to the next round, resulting in a 16-team knockout stage. The next edition of the World Cup will have 48 teams. Although FIFA initially proposed a configuration of 16 three-team groups, it has ultimately settled on 12 four-team groups. The format chosen, based on four-team groups, has clear organizational disadvantages and even a lack of fairness in the competition. But, in return, there is less risk of collusion in groups of four teams than in groups of three teams. This study proposes a modification to the three-team group format to reduce the risk of collusion by making the order of the matches not predefined in advance. The results obtained with Monte Carlo simulations show that the new three-team competition format with dynamic match order is comparable, in terms of collusion risk, to the four-team group system commonly used in past World Cups.

翻译：常规国际足联世界杯小组赛阶段为8个小组，每组4支球队，共32支球队。每组前两名晋级下一轮，形成16支球队的淘汰赛阶段。下届世界杯将有48支球队。尽管国际足联最初提出16个三队小组的配置，但最终确定为12个四队小组。基于四队小组的赛制存在明显的组织劣势，甚至缺乏竞赛公平性。但作为补偿，四队小组的串通风险低于三队小组。本研究提出对三队小组赛制进行改进，通过不预先设定比赛顺序来降低串通风险。蒙特卡洛模拟结果表明，采用动态比赛顺序的新型三队赛制在串通风险方面与往届世界杯普遍采用的四队小组赛制相当。