The sub-Gaussian parameter (also called the variance proxy) of a mean-zero random variable $X$ is defined as $ξ^2_* = \sup_{λ\in \mathbb{R}} L(λ)$ where $L(λ) = \frac{2}{λ^2} \log \mathbb{E} e^{λX}$ is a weighted cumulant generating function. Despite the ubiquity of sub-Gaussian random variables, the estimation of $ξ^2_*$ has received little attention and is not yet well understood. In this work, we study a natural estimator of $ξ^2_*$ based on constrained maximization of the empirical analogue of $L$. We prove that the estimator is consistent bound the rates of convergence under assumptions on $L$: if $L$ has an maximizer, then our bound is $O_p(n^{-1/2 + \varepsilon})$ for any $\varepsilon > 0$; if the argmax of $L$ is also bounded, then the bound improves to $O_p(n^{-1/2})$. We show that our assumptions on $L$ are necessary by proving that the minimax risk over all sub-Gaussian distributions is $Ω(1)$; imposing increasingly strong assumptions on the tail growth of $L$ yields a continuum of classes whose minimax lower bound interpolates between $Ω(1/\log n)$ and $Ω(1)$. Root-n rate is possible if we restrict to a subclass of distributions where $L$ attains its supremum in a bounded region, in which case our estimator is minimax optimal. If the underlying distribution is not sub-Gaussian, we show that our estimator goes to infinity with a divergence rate controlled by the tail of the distribution. Finally, we apply our estimator in a Gene Ontology (GO) enrichment study to construct p-values for a large-scale permutation test, showing that it can serve as a reliable alternative to the peaks-over-threshold approach, particularly in regimes where the peaks-over-threshold method is of uncertain validity.

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