We discuss the statistics involved in the legal case of the nurse Lucia de B. in The Netherlands, 2003-2004. Lucia de B. witnessed an unusually high number of incidents during her shifts, and the question arose as to whether this could be attributed to chance. We discuss and criticise the statistical analysis of Henk Elffers, a statistician who was asked by the prosecutor to write a statistical report on the issue. We discuss several other possibilities for statistical analysis. Our main point is that several statistical models exist, leading to very different predictions, or perhaps different answers to different questions. There is no such thing as a `best' statistical analysis.

翻译：我们讨论了2003-2004年荷兰护士露西娅·德·B案中涉及的统计学问题。露西娅·德·B在其值班期间目睹了异常高数量的事件，由此引发了这一现象能否归因于偶然性的疑问。我们对检方委托撰写统计报告的统计学家亨克·埃尔弗斯的统计分析进行了讨论与批评。我们还探讨了其他几种可能的统计分析方法。我们的主要观点是：存在多种统计模型，它们会得出截然不同的预测结果，或是对不同问题给出不同答案。并不存在所谓“最佳”的统计分析。