We extend the work of Roychowdhury (2026) on skewness variations of the logarithmic flux, driven by large GeV flares in FSRQs, to a sample of 18 FSRQs. We find that they can be categorized into three groups, one where the skewness attains a persistent lower value after a large flare, one where it increases, and those where change in skewness is not significant. To provide a theoretical ground for these results, we use the statistical plasmoid model of Fermo et al. (2010) that self-consistently produces large plasmoids through merging which, when gain energy from the reconnection event and are Doppler aligned, produce large flares. We find that a downsampling of our simulation of 1500 runs to 18 statistically reproduces the observed distribution in p-values for change in skewness. We further compute the ensemble Shannon entropy of the system and the skewness, where the entropy is found to decrease at a $3σ$ level in both the groups where skewness either increases or decreases, as a direct evidence of increase in order in the system caused by a flare. We find that the power spectral densities of the simulated light curves are broken-power-laws, resembling a white noise+red noise broken by the typical cooling timescale in our system, in accordance with known blazar variability. We find that our results are robust to a $200-300\%$ change in several fiducial parameters of the simulation. Our stochastic simulation of plasmoids inside a blazar jet is consistent with key observable statistical properties of blazar GeV light curves.
翻译:我们将Roychowdhury (2026)关于FSRQ中大GeV耀斑驱动的对数流量偏度变化的研究,推广至一个包含18个FSRQ的样本。我们发现它们可分为三组:一组在经历大耀斑后偏度持续降低,另一组偏度增大,第三组偏度变化不显著。为从理论上解释这些结果,我们采用Fermo等人(2010)的统计等离子体团模型,该模型通过合并自洽地产生大型等离子体团;当这些等离子体团从重联事件中获得能量且多普勒对齐时,便会引发大耀斑。通过将包含1500次模拟的数据集降采样至18个,我们统计还原了观测到的偏度变化p值分布。进一步计算系统的整体香农熵与偏度发现,在偏度增大或减小的两组中,熵均以$3σ$置信水平下降——这直接证明了耀斑导致系统有序度增加。模拟光变的功率谱密度呈断裂幂律形式,表现为白噪声+红噪声被系统典型冷却时标截断的特征,这与已知耀变体变光性质一致。结果表明,模拟中多个基准参数在$200-300\%$范围内变化时,结果仍保持稳健。我们关于耀变体喷流内等离子体团随机模拟的结果,与耀变体GeV光变的关键可观测统计性质相吻合。