Quantum computing promises transformational gains for solving some problems, but little to none for others. For anyone hoping to use quantum computers now or in the future, it is important to know which problems will benefit. In this paper, we introduce a framework for answering this question both intuitively and quantitatively. The underlying structure of the framework is a race between quantum and classical computers, where their relative strengths determine when each wins. While classical computers operate faster, quantum computers can sometimes run more efficient algorithms. Whether the speed advantage or the algorithmic advantage dominates determines whether a problem will benefit from quantum computing or not. Our analysis reveals that many problems, particularly those of small to moderate size that can be important for typical businesses, will not benefit from quantum computing. Conversely, larger problems or those with particularly big algorithmic gains will benefit from near-term quantum computing. Since very large algorithmic gains are rare in practice and theorized to be rare even in principle, our analysis suggests that the benefits from quantum computing will flow either to users of these rare cases, or practitioners processing very large data.

翻译：量子计算有望为解决某些问题带来变革性收益，但对其他问题则收效甚微。对于任何现在或未来希望使用量子计算机的人来说，了解哪些问题将从中受益至关重要。在本文中，我们引入了一个框架，既可直观又可定量地回答这个问题。该框架的基本结构是量子计算机与经典计算机之间的竞赛，二者的相对优势决定了各自获胜的条件。虽然经典计算机运行速度更快，但量子计算机有时能执行更高效的算法。是速度优势还是算法优势占据主导，决定了问题是否能从量子计算中受益。我们的分析表明，许多问题，尤其是对典型企业可能重要的小到中等规模的问题，不会从量子计算中受益。相反，规模较大或算法增益特别显著的问题将从近期量子计算中受益。由于在实际中巨大的算法增益十分罕见，且理论上即使是原则上也被认为是罕见的，我们的分析表明，量子计算的收益将流向这些罕见案例的用户或处理极大规模数据的从业者。