In recent decades, new methods and approaches have been developed for forecasting intermittent demand series. However, the majority of research has focused on point forecasting, with little exploration into probabilistic intermittent demand forecasting. This is despite the fact that probabilistic forecasting is crucial for effective decision-making under uncertainty and inventory management. Additionally, most literature on this topic has focused solely on forecasting performance and has overlooked the inventory implications, which are directly relevant to intermittent demand. To address these gaps, this study aims to construct probabilistic forecasting combinations for intermittent demand while considering both forecasting accuracy and inventory control utility in obtaining combinations and evaluating forecasts. Our empirical findings demonstrate that combinations perform better than individual approaches for forecasting intermittent demand, but there is a trade-off between forecasting and inventory performance.

翻译：近几十年来，已经开发出许多新的方法和方法来预测间歇性需求数据。然而，大部分研究都集中在点预测方面，对于概率性的间歇性需求预测却几乎没有探索。尽管如此，概率预测对于有效的决策制定和库存管理至关重要。此外，这个主题的大部分文献都只关注预测性能，而忽略了对库存的影响，而这与间歇性需求密切相关。为了填补这些空白，本研究旨在构建间歇性需求的概率预测组合，同时考虑预测准确性和库存控制效用，以获取组合并评估预测。我们的实证结果表明，相对于单一方法，组合对间歇性需求预测的表现更好，但在预测和库存性能之间存在权衡。