We develop a Markov model of curling matches, parametrised by the probability of winning an end and the probability distribution of scoring ends. In practical applications, these end-winning probabilities can be estimated econometrically, and are shown to depend on which team holds the hammer, as well as the offensive and defensive strengths of the respective teams. Using a maximum entropy argument, based on the idea of characteristic scoring patterns in curling, we predict that the points distribution of scoring ends should follow a constrained geometric distribution. We provide analytical results detailing when it is optimal to blank the end in preference to scoring one point and losing possession of the hammer. Statistical and simulation analysis of international curling matches is also performed.

翻译：我们构建了一个冰壶比赛的马尔可夫模型，其参数包括单局获胜概率与得分局的概率分布。在实际应用中，这些单局获胜概率可通过计量经济学方法进行估计，并证明其取决于哪支队伍拥有后手权（hammer），以及双方队伍的进攻与防守实力。基于冰壶比赛中特征性得分模式的理念，我们运用最大熵原理预测得分局的分数分布应服从一个受约束的几何分布。我们提供了详细的分析结果，阐明了在何种情况下选择空局（blank the end）比仅得一分但失去后手权更为优化。此外，我们还对国际冰壶比赛进行了统计与模拟分析。