We propose a framework for the analysis of transmission channels in a large class of dynamic models. To this end, we formulate our approach both using graph theory and potential outcomes, which we show to be equivalent. Our method, labelled Transmission Channel Analysis (TCA), allows for the decomposition of total effects captured by impulse response functions into the effects flowing along transmission channels, thereby providing a quantitative assessment of the strength of various transmission channels. We establish that this requires no additional identification assumptions beyond the identification of the structural shock whose effects the researcher wants to decompose. Additionally, we prove that impulse response functions are sufficient statistics for the computation of transmission effects. We demonstrate the empirical relevance of TCA for policy evaluation by decomposing the effects of policy shocks arising from a variety of popular macroeconomic models.
翻译:我们提出了一个用于分析一大类动态模型中传导渠道的框架。为此,我们分别运用图论和潜在结果两种方式构建了我们的方法,并证明了两者的等价性。我们的方法称为传导渠道分析(TCA),它允许将脉冲响应函数捕捉的总效应分解为沿各传导渠道流动的效应,从而对各种传导渠道的强度提供定量评估。我们证明,除了需要识别研究者希望分解其效应的结构性冲击外,该方法不需要额外的识别假设。此外,我们证明了脉冲响应函数是计算传导效应的充分统计量。我们通过分解多种流行宏观经济模型中政策冲击产生的效应,证明了TCA对于政策评估的实证相关性。