Continual learning (CL) aims to adapt models to new tasks while preserving previously learned knowledge. Recently, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), a representative Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) method, has gained increasing attention in CL due to its efficiency and scalability. Several LoRA-based merging methods maintain a single inference model by scaling the newly learned LoRA update with one coefficient and merging it into the previous weights after each task. However, they usually control the whole update with a shared scalar factor, although different update elements may affect previous and current tasks in different ways. To address this issue, we propose Merging Strength Modulation via Joint Loss Estimation (M2LE). It consists of Hessian Information-guided Adaptive Merging (HIM) and Task Simulation Perturbation for Merging (TSP). Instead of searching for a global merge coefficient, HIM directly solves for the target merged update under a joint objective over previous and current tasks. Solving this objective gives an analytic solution that naturally takes the form of element-wise modulation over the current task LoRA update. To improve the stability of the learned update under subsequent merging, we introduce TSP which simulates different tasks interference. Experiments on multiple benchmarks show that M2LE consistently outperforms existing PEFT-based continual learning methods. Code is available at https://github.com/bbdeeer/M2LE_NeurIPS2026.

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