The randomized play-the-winner (RPW) model is a generalized P\'olya Urn process with broad applications ranging from viral genomics to clinical trials. We derive an exact expression for the variance of the RPW model as well as an approximation of its full probability mass function. We then demonstrate an application of the model to viral replication processes, and provide a novel method of estimating viral mutation rates.

翻译：随机化赢家优先（RPW）模型是一种广义波利亚瓮过程，在病毒基因组学至临床试验等领域具有广泛应用。我们推导了RPW模型方差的精确表达式及其完整概率质量函数的近似形式。随后展示了该模型在病毒复制过程中的应用，并提出了一种估计病毒突变率的新方法。