How does research evolve, and what substrate would let us forecast where it goes next? Scientific progress is not simply a uniform accumulation of facts: ideas extend prior methods, address known limitations, realize proposed future directions, and sometimes dispute earlier claims. Existing citation graphs usually collapse these roles into a single homogeneous edge type, limiting how we can analyze scientific progress. We address this gap by proposing the SciTraj corpus, the first claim-grounded typed citation graph in which each edge is linked to the specific claim sentence that motivates it. Claim-bearing sentences are extracted from paper sections; four claim-driven relations are verified by NLI entailment against in-paper context, while two similarity-only relations are gated by abstract cosine and year-gap rules. SciTraj contains 32,559 papers from NLP, ML, and Vision (2015--2024), connected by 573,126 directed edges across six relation types, with NLI-verified claim seeds. Using SciTraj, we identify disciplinary siloing in typed citation flow and topic emergence concentrated in Vision and LLM-related work. The corpus also contains 287M typed trajectories of length $\geq 3$, covering 72.8% of papers, and supports a temporally split typed link-prediction benchmark. A year-shuffle falsifiability test separates temporal structure from year-correlated content, and a 3-annotator pilot reports $κ= 0.74$ with 79.9% precision.

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