The 2021 Nobel Prize in Economics recognizes a type of causal model known as the Rubin causal model, or potential outcome framework, which deserves far more attention from philosophers than it currently receives. To spark philosophers' interest, I develop a dialectic connecting the Rubin causal model to the Lewis-Stalnaker debate on a logical principle of counterfactuals: Conditional Excluded Middle (CEM). I begin by playing good cop for CEM, developing a new argument in its favor -- a Quine-Putnam-style indispensability argument. This argument is based on the observation that CEM seems to be indispensable to the Rubin causal model, which underpins our best scientific theory of causal inference in health and social sciences -- a Nobel Prize-winning theory. Indeed, CEM has long remained a core assumption of the Rubin causal model, despite challenges from within the statistics and economics communities over twenty years ago. I then switch sides to play bad cop for CEM, undermining the indispensability argument by developing a new theory of causal inference that dispenses with CEM while preserving the successes of the original theory (thanks to a new theorem proved here). The key, somewhat surprisingly, is to integrate two approaches to causal modeling: the Rubin causal model, more familiar in health and social sciences, and the causal Bayes net, more familiar in philosophy. The good cop/bad cop dialectic is concluded with a connection to broader philosophical issues, including intertheory relations, the revisability of logic, and the role of background assumptions in justifying scientific inference.

翻译：2021年诺贝尔经济学奖所表彰的鲁宾因果模型（亦称潜在结果框架）是一种值得哲学家给予更多关注的因果模型。为激发哲学界的兴趣，本文构建了一种将鲁宾因果模型与刘易斯-斯塔尔纳克关于反事实条件句逻辑原则（即条件排中律）的论争相联系的辩证论述。首先，我为条件排中律扮演"支持者"角色，提出一种新的论证——一种奎因-普特南式的不可或缺性论证。该论证基于以下观察：条件排中律对鲁宾因果模型似乎不可或缺，而该模型支撑着我们在健康科学和社会科学领域最优秀的因果推断科学理论——一项荣获诺贝尔奖的理论。事实上，尽管二十多年前统计学和经济学界就提出质疑，条件排中律始终是鲁宾因果模型的核心假设。随后我转换立场，扮演条件排中律的"质疑者"，通过构建一种新的因果推断理论来削弱不可或缺性论证——该理论在摒弃条件排中律的同时，保留了原理论的成功之处（这得益于本文证明的一个新定理）。关键之处在于，令人惊讶的是，需要整合两种因果建模方法：在健康科学和社会科学领域更常见的鲁宾因果模型，以及在哲学领域更熟悉的因果贝叶斯网络。本文最后将这种"支持者/质疑者"的辩证论述与更广泛的哲学问题联系起来，包括理论间关系、逻辑的可修正性以及背景假设在科学推断论证中的作用。