Spatial reasoning is a fundamental capability of multimodal large language models (MLLMs), yet existing benchmarks mainly focus on static scene understanding. When objects are moved or swapped, models must infer not only spatial relations but also how interventions change the scene state. To address this problem, we introduce CST-Bench, a benchmark for counterfactual spatial reasoning. CST-Bench contains 7,082 examples covering 6 intervention types and 12 transformation operators, with dense causal annotations including intervention sources, affected relations, expected effects, invariant relations, and metric changes. We benchmark general-purpose MLLMs on CST-Bench and further compare post-training strategies on CST-Bench and standard spatial benchmarks. Results show that methods effective for ordinary spatial reasoning can still fail under counterfactual interventions. We further formulate counterfactual spatial reasoning as causal state-transition modeling and propose CT-OPSD, which uses CST-Bench annotations to guide a teacher model in learning counterfactual state transitions and causal reasoning chains. These chains are then distilled into a student model that reasons only from real observations. Overall, experiment results establish CST-Bench as a challenging benchmark and reusable supervision resource for counterfactual spatial reasoning. CT-OPSD further provides an initial demonstration of how its annotations can support model improvement.

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