Context: Botanical pandemics cause enormous economic damage and food shortage around the globe. However, since botanical pandemics are here to stay in the short-medium term, domesticated field owners can strategically seed their fields to optimize each session's economic profit. Objective: Given the pathogen's epidemiological properties, we aim to find an economically optimal grid-based seeding strategy for field owners and policymakers. Methods: We propose a novel epidemiological-economic mathematical model that describes the economic profit from a field of plants during a botanical pandemic. We describe the epidemiological dynamics using a spatio-temporal extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemiological model with a non-linear output epidemiological model. Results and Conclusions: We provide an algorithm to obtain an optimal grid-formed seeding strategy to maximize economic profit, given field and pathogen properties. In addition, we implement the proposed model in realistic settings, analyzing the sensitivity of the economic profit as a function of several epidemiological and economic properties. We show that the recovery and basic infection rates have a similar economic influence. Unintuitively, we show that in the context of a botanic pandemic, a larger farm does not promise higher economic profit. Significance: Our results demonstrate a significant benefit of using the proposed seeding strategy and shed more light on the dynamics of the botanical pandemic in domesticated fields.

翻译：背景：植物大流行在全球范围内造成巨大的经济损失和粮食短缺。然而，由于植物大流行在中短期内仍将持续存在，驯化农田所有者可以策略性地安排播种，以优化每一季的经济利润。目标：在给定病原体流行病学特性的条件下，我们旨在为农田所有者和政策制定者寻找一种基于网格的经济最优播种策略。方法：我们提出一种新颖的流行病学-经济学数学模型，用于描述植物大流行期间农田的经济利润。我们采用具有非线性输出的时空扩展易感-感染-恢复流行病学模型来描述流行病学动态。结果与结论：我们提供了一种算法，可根据农田和病原体特性，获取最大化经济利润的最优网格播种策略。此外，我们在现实场景中实施了所提出的模型，分析了经济利润对多种流行病学和经济学特性的敏感性。结果表明，恢复率和基础感染率具有相似的经济影响；反直觉的是，在植物大流行背景下，更大的农场并不保证更高的经济利润。意义：我们的结果展示了使用所提出的播种策略的显著优势，并进一步揭示了驯化农田中植物大流行的动态机制。