The U.S. - China rivalry has placed frontier dual-use technologies, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI), at the center of global power dynamics, as techno-nationalism, supply chain securitization, and competing standards deepen bifurcation within a weaponized interdependence that blurs civilian-military boundaries. Existing research, yet, mostly emphasizes superpower strategies and often overlooks the role of middle powers as autonomous actors shaping the techno-order. This study examines Technological Swing States (TSS), middle powers with both technological capacity and strategic flexibility, and their ability to navigate the frontier technologies' uncertainty and opacity to mediate great-power techno-competition regionally and globally. It reconceptualizes AI opacity not as a technical deficit, but as a structural feature and strategic resource, stemming from algorithmic complexity, political incentives that prioritize performance over explainability, and the limits of post-hoc interpretability. This structural opacity shifts authority from technical demands for explainability to institutional mechanisms, such as certification, auditing, and disclosure, converting technical constraints into strategic political opportunities. Drawing on case studies of South Korea, Singapore, and India, the paper theorizes how TSS exploit the interplay between opacity and institutional transparency through three strategies: (i) delay and hedging, (ii) selective alignment, and (iii) normative intermediation. These practices enable TSS to preserve strategic flexibility, build trust among diverse stakeholders, and broker convergence across competing governance regimes, thereby influencing institutional design, interstate bargaining, and policy outcomes in global AI governance.

翻译：中美竞争已将前沿军民两用技术，尤其是人工智能（AI），置于全球权力动态的核心。技术民族主义、供应链安全化以及相互竞争的标准，在模糊军民界限的武器化相互依存中加深了技术领域的二分。然而，现有研究大多强调超级大国的战略，往往忽视了中等强国作为塑造技术秩序的自主行为体的作用。本研究考察了技术摇摆国——即兼具技术能力和战略灵活性的中等强国——及其如何驾驭前沿技术的不确定性与不透明性，在区域和全球层面调解大国技术竞争。本文将AI不透明性重新概念化，认为其并非技术缺陷，而是源于算法复杂性、优先性能而非可解释性的政治激励，以及事后可解释性局限的一种结构性特征和战略资源。这种结构性不透明将权威从对可解释性的技术要求，转向认证、审计和披露等制度机制，从而将技术约束转化为战略政治机遇。通过对韩国、新加坡和印度的案例研究，本文从理论上阐释了技术摇摆国如何通过三种策略利用不透明性与制度透明度之间的相互作用：（i）延迟与对冲，（ii）选择性结盟，以及（iii）规范性中介。这些实践使技术摇摆国得以保持战略灵活性，在不同利益相关者间建立信任，并在相互竞争的治理体制间促成趋同，从而影响全球AI治理中的制度设计、国家间谈判和政策结果。