Balancing human development with conservation necessitates ecological policies that optimize outcomes within limited budgets, highlighting the importance of cost-efficiency and local impact analysis. This study employs the Socio-Econ-Ecosystem Multipurpose Simulator (SEEMS), an Agent-Based Model (ABM) designed for simulating small-scale Coupled Human and Nature Systems (CHANS), to evaluate the cost-efficiency of two major ecology conservation programs: Grain-to-Green (G2G) and Firewood-to-Electricity (F2E). Focusing on China Wolong National Reserve, a worldwide hot spot for flagship species conservation, the study evaluates the direct benefits of these programs, including reverted farmland area and firewood consumption, along with their combined indirect benefits on habitat quality, carbon emissions, and gross economic benefits. The findings are as follows: (1) The G2G program achieves optimal financial efficiency at approximately 500 CNY/Mu, with diminishing returns observed beyond 1000 CNY/Mu; (2) For the F2E program, the most fiscally cost-efficient option arises when the subsidized electricity price is at 0.4-0.5 CNY/kWh, while further reductions of the prices to below 0.1 CNY/kWh result in a diminishing cost-benefit ratio; (3) Comprehensive cost-efficiency analysis reveals no significant link between financial burden and carbon emissions, but a positive correlation with habitat quality and an inverted U-shaped relationship with total economic income; (4) Pareto analysis identifies 18 optimal dual-policy combinations for balancing carbon footprint, habitat quality, and gross economic benefits; (5) Posterior Pareto optimization further refines the selection of a specific policy scheme for a given realistic scenario. The analytical framework of this paper helps policymakers design economically viable and environmentally sustainable policies, addressing global conservation challenges.

翻译：平衡人类发展与生态保护需要制定能在有限预算内优化产出的生态政策，这凸显了成本效益分析和地方影响评估的重要性。本研究采用基于主体的社会经济生态系统多用途模拟器（SEEMS）——一种专为模拟小尺度人类与自然耦合系统（CHANS）设计的基于主体模型（ABM），评估了两项主要生态保护项目的成本效益：退耕还林（G2G）和以电代柴（F2E）。研究以全球旗舰物种保护热点区域中国卧龙国家级自然保护区为案例，评估了这些项目的直接效益（包括退耕面积和薪柴消耗量）及其对栖息地质量、碳排放和总经济收益的综合间接效益。研究结果如下：(1) G2G项目在约500元/亩时达到最佳资金使用效率，超过1000元/亩后出现效益递减；(2) F2E项目在补贴电价为0.4-0.5元/千瓦时最具财政成本效益，而电价进一步降至0.1元/千瓦时以下将导致成本效益比下降；(3) 综合成本效益分析显示，财政负担与碳排放无显著关联，但与栖息地质量呈正相关，与总经济收入呈倒U型关系；(4) 帕累托分析确定了18种平衡碳足迹、栖息地质量与总经济收益的最优双政策组合；(5) 后验帕累托优化可针对特定现实情境进一步细化政策方案选择。本文的分析框架有助于决策者设计经济可行且环境可持续的政策，以应对全球性保护挑战。