Briscola is a traditional Italian trick-taking card game whose simplest form is played by two players. Popular folklore credits victory almost entirely to the player who is dealt more cards of the trump suit (the so-called \emph{briscola}), so that the game would be a near-deterministic function of the deal. We test this folklore against a pre-registered alternative, namely that two deterministic rule-based refinements of the naive greedy policy -- a briscola-hoarding policy $\stratH$ and a public-information counter policy $\stratC$ -- dominate the greedy baseline $\stratG$ irrespective of trump luck. To this end we run a round-robin Monte Carlo tournament of $10^{6}$ simulated games across the nine ordered pairings of $(\stratG,\stratH,\stratC)$, retaining approximately $1.08\times 10^{5}$ non-tied games per pairing, and we analyse the resulting outcomes through Wilson confidence intervals, a Bonferroni-corrected pairwise binomial test, and a logistic regression of the game outcome on the strategy pair and on the signed briscola-count imbalance, so as to quantify the relative contribution of strategy and trump luck. We close with a reproducibility appendix that makes the simulation, the random seed and the analysis script fully deterministic.

翻译：布里斯科拉是一种传统的意大利取牌游戏，其最简单的形式为双人玩法。民间普遍认为胜负几乎完全取决于拿到更多王牌花色牌（即所谓的“布里斯科拉”）的玩家，这使得游戏近乎成为发牌的确定性函数。我们针对这一民间说法，检验了一个预先注册的替代假说：两种基于规则的确定性策略改进——一种囤积布里斯科拉策略$\stratH$和一种公共信息对抗策略$\stratC$——无论王牌运气如何，都优于朴素贪婪基线策略$\stratG$。为此，我们运行了一个循环蒙特卡洛锦标赛，对$(\stratG,\stratH,\stratC)$的九种有序配对各模拟$10^{6}$局游戏，每对配对保留约$1.08\times 10^{5}$局非平局游戏，并通过威尔逊置信区间、经邦费罗尼校正的成对二项检验，以及将游戏结果对策略对和有符号布里斯科拉计数不平衡进行逻辑回归分析，来量化策略与王牌运气的相对贡献。最后，我们附上了一份可复现性附录，使模拟过程、随机种子和分析脚本完全确定化。