Briscola is a traditional Italian trick-taking card game whose simplest form is played by two players. Popular folklore credits victory almost entirely to the player who is dealt more cards of the trump suit (the so-called \emph{briscola}), so that the game would be a near-deterministic function of the deal. We test this folklore against a pre-registered alternative, namely that two deterministic rule-based refinements of the naive greedy policy -- a briscola-hoarding policy $\stratH$ and a public-information counter policy $\stratC$ -- dominate the greedy baseline $\stratG$ irrespective of trump luck. To this end we run a round-robin Monte Carlo tournament of $10^{6}$ simulated games across the nine ordered pairings of $(\stratG,\stratH,\stratC)$, retaining approximately $1.08\times 10^{5}$ non-tied games per pairing, and we analyse the resulting outcomes through Wilson confidence intervals, a Bonferroni-corrected pairwise binomial test, and a logistic regression of the game outcome on the strategy pair and on the signed briscola-count imbalance, so as to quantify the relative contribution of strategy and trump luck. We close with a reproducibility appendix that makes the simulation, the random seed and the analysis script fully deterministic.

翻译：布里什科拉是一种传统的意大利取牌游戏，其最简单的形式由两名玩家进行。民间普遍认为胜负几乎完全取决于拿到更多王牌花色（即所谓“布里什科拉”）的玩家，因此游戏结果几乎由发牌情况决定。我们针对这一民间说法进行预注册的替代假设检验，即两种基于规则、对朴素贪婪策略的确定性改进——囤积布里什科拉策略$\stratH$和公共信息对抗策略$\stratC$——无论王牌运气如何，均优于贪婪基线策略$\stratG$。为此，我们运行了一个循环赛蒙特卡洛模拟，在$(\stratG,\stratH,\stratC)$的九种有序配对组合中各模拟$10^{6}$局游戏，每对保留约$1.08\times 10^{5}$局非平局结果，并通过威尔逊置信区间、邦费罗尼校正配对二项检验以及游戏结果对策略对和带符号的布里什科拉计数不平衡的逻辑回归分析结果，以量化策略与王牌运气的相对贡献。最后，我们附上可复现性附录，确保模拟过程、随机种子及分析脚本完全确定性。