With rapid advances in machine learning, many people in the field have been discussing the rise of digital minds and the possibility of artificial sentience. Future developments in AI capabilities and safety will depend on public opinion and human-AI interaction. To begin to fill this research gap, we present the first nationally representative survey data on the topic of sentient AI: initial results from the Artificial Intelligence, Morality, and Sentience (AIMS) survey, a preregistered and longitudinal study of U.S. public opinion that began in 2021. Across one wave of data collection in 2021 and two in 2023 (total N = 3,500), we found mind perception and moral concern for AI well-being in 2021 were higher than predicted and significantly increased in 2023: for example, 71% agree sentient AI deserve to be treated with respect, and 38% support legal rights. People have become more threatened by AI, and there is widespread opposition to new technologies: 63% support a ban on smarter-than-human AI, and 69% support a ban on sentient AI. Expected timelines are surprisingly short and shortening with a median forecast of sentient AI in only five years and artificial general intelligence in only two years. We argue that, whether or not AIs become sentient, the discussion itself may overhaul human-computer interaction and shape the future trajectory of AI technologies, including existential risks and opportunities.

翻译：随着机器学习的快速发展，该领域的许多人一直在讨论数字心智的兴起以及人工感知的可能性。人工智能能力与安全性的未来发展将取决于公众意见和人机交互。为填补这一研究空白，我们首次提供了关于有感知能力人工智能主题的全国代表性调查数据：来自"人工智能、道德与感知能力"（AIMS）调查的初步结果，这是一项始于2021年针对美国公众意见的预注册纵向研究。通过对2021年的一轮数据收集和2023年的两轮数据收集（总样本量N=3,500），我们发现2021年对人工智能的心智感知与道德关注度高于预期，并在2023年显著增长：例如，71%的受访者认同有感知能力的人工智能应受到尊重对待，38%支持赋予其法律权利。人们对人工智能的威胁感日益增强，且普遍反对新技术：63%支持禁止开发超越人类智能的人工智能，69%支持禁止有感知能力的人工智能。预期时间线出人意料地短暂且持续缩短，预测有感知能力人工智能出现的中位时间仅为五年，通用人工智能仅为两年。我们认为，无论人工智能是否具备感知能力，相关讨论本身可能彻底改变人机交互模式，并塑造人工智能技术的未来轨迹，包括存在性风险与机遇。