Standard macroeconomic frameworks have correctly identified Japan's government debt - now exceeding 240% of GDP - as carrying substantial fiscal risk. Yet FRED data from 2013 to 2026 present an empirical record inviting a complementary perspective: debt ratios have stabilized, nominal GDP has exceeded 670 trillion yen (SAAR), and unemployment has remained near 2.6-2.7%. This paper formalizes these channels through the Japanese Financial Repression r-g (JFR-rg) model. Building on Blanchard (2019), the framework incorporates a financial repression bias (epsilon_t = pi_t - r^n_t, directly observable from FRED) and a non-linear exchange-rate channel. Three theoretical contributions extend the literature: (i) the Debt Sustainability Corridor, a characterization of stability in (epsilon_t, g^n*_t) space; (ii) the Normalization Ratchet, a path-dependence theorem showing that temporary policy errors generate persistently higher debt trajectories; and (iii) the Captive Financial System Parameter (phi_t), which endogenizes the institutional precondition for JFR-rg stability. Appendices H-L provide supporting empirical evidence (VAR, ARDL, Local Projections) showing the framework's claims are empirically disciplined and falsifiable. The core debt-dynamics propositions are anchored in the consolidated government budget identity (Layer L1), while selected propositions additionally rely on minimal structural assumptions; identification concerns apply only to the empirical Layer L2. Counterfactual simulations illustrate a Normalization Trap: aggressive rate hikes can produce counterproductive debt dynamics. For high-debt, low-growth economies sharing Japan's institutional characteristics, strategically deploying the resulting Repression Dividend into productivity-enhancing investment may represent a regime-contingent equilibrium possibility, conditional on the captive system condition being maintained.

翻译：标准宏观经济学框架已正确识别日本政府债务（目前超过GDP的240%）存在重大财政风险。然而，2013至2026年的FRED数据呈现出一组可供补充视角的实证记录：债务比率已趋于稳定，名义GDP超过670万亿日元（年化季调），失业率维持在2.6%-2.7%附近。本文通过日本金融抑制r-g（JFR-rg）模型将这些传导渠道形式化。基于Blanchard（2019）的研究，该框架引入了金融抑制偏误（ε_t = π_t - r^n_t，可直接从FRED观测）及非线性汇率渠道。三项理论贡献拓展了现有文献：（i）债务可持续走廊——在（ε_t, g^n*_t）空间中对稳定性的刻画；（ii）正常化棘轮——路径依赖定理，表明临时性政策失误会产生持续更高的债务轨迹；（iii）俘获型金融系统参数（φ_t）——将JFR-rg稳定性的制度前提内生化为可捕捉的变量。附录H-L提供了支持性实证证据（VAR、ARDL、局部投影法），表明该框架的论断受到经验约束且可证伪。核心债务动态命题根植于政府合并预算恒等式（L1层），而部分选定的命题额外依赖于最小结构性假设；识别问题仅适用于实证L2层。反事实模拟揭示了正常化陷阱：激进的加息可能引发适得其反的债务动态。对于共享日本制度特征的高债务低增长经济体，在维持俘获型系统条件的前提下，将由此产生的抑制红利策略性配置于提升生产率的投资，可能代表一种制度依赖均衡可能性。