The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) is raising concerns about its potential to transform cybercrime. Beyond empowering novice offenders, AI stands to intensify the scale and sophistication of attacks by seasoned cybercriminals. This paper examines the evolving relationship between cybercriminals and AI using a unique dataset from a cyber threat intelligence platform. Analyzing more than 160 cybercrime forum conversations collected over seven months, our research reveals how cybercriminals understand AI and discuss how they can exploit its capabilities. Their exchanges reflect growing curiosity about AI's criminal applications through legal tools and dedicated criminal tools, but also doubts and anxieties about AI's effectiveness and its effects on their business models and operational security. The study documents attempts to misuse legitimate AI tools and develop bespoke models tailored for illicit purposes. Combining the diffusion of innovation framework with thematic analysis, the paper provides an in-depth view of emerging AI-enabled cybercrime and offers practical insights for law enforcement and policymakers.

翻译：人工智能（AI）的快速扩张引发了对其可能改变网络犯罪的担忧。除了赋能新手犯罪者外，AI还有可能加剧经验丰富的网络犯罪分子的攻击规模和复杂程度。本文利用来自网络威胁情报平台的独特数据集，考察了网络犯罪分子与AI之间不断演变的关系。通过分析七个月内收集的160多个网络犯罪论坛对话，我们的研究揭示了网络犯罪分子如何理解AI并讨论如何利用其能力。他们的交流反映出对AI通过合法工具和专用犯罪工具进行犯罪应用的兴趣日益增长，同时也表现出对AI的有效性及其对其商业模式和操作安全影响的怀疑与焦虑。本研究记录了滥用合法AI工具以及开发专门用于非法目的的定制模型的尝试。结合创新扩散框架与主题分析，本文深入探讨了新兴的AI赋能网络犯罪，并为执法机构和政策制定者提供了实用见解。