One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches. To guarantee that the opponents of the clubs are of the same strength in the new design, it is crucial to forecast the performance of the teams before the tournament as well as possible. This paper investigates whether the currently used rating of the teams, the UEFA club coefficient, can be improved by taking the games played in the national leagues into account. According to our logistic regression models, a variant of the Elo method provides a higher accuracy in terms of explanatory power in the Champions League matches. The Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) is encouraged to follow the example of the FIFA World Ranking and reform the calculation of the club coefficients in order to avoid unbalanced schedules in the novel tournament format of the Champions League.

翻译：欧洲最受欢迎的俱乐部足球赛事之一——欧冠联赛，将从2024/25赛季起迎来根本性改革：传统的分组赛将被一种由全部36支球队各进行八场比赛的单一联赛所取代。为确保新赛制下各俱乐部对手实力均衡，赛前尽可能准确地预测球队表现至关重要。本文探讨了目前使用的球队评级——欧足联俱乐部系数，能否通过纳入国内联赛的比赛数据得到改进。根据我们的逻辑回归模型，埃洛评分法的一种变体在欧冠比赛的解释力方面提供了更高精度。我们建议欧洲足球协会联盟（UEFA）效仿国际足联世界排名，改革俱乐部系数的计算方式，以避免欧冠联赛新赛制中出现赛程失衡的情况。