The literature shows the possible existence of a problem called collinearity in both Nelson-Siegel and Nelson-Siegel-Svensson models due to the relationship between the slope and curvature components. The presence of this problem and the estimation of both models by Ordinary Least Squares would lead to coefficients estimates that may be unstable among other consequences. However, these estimates are used to make monetary policy decisions. For this reason, it is important to try mitigating this collinearity problem. Consequently, some authors propose traditional procedures for the treatment of collinearity such as: non-linear optimisation, to fix the shape parameter or ridge regression. Nevertheless, all these processes have their disadvantages. Alternatively, a new method with good properties called raise regression is proposed in this paper. Finally, the methodologies are illustrated with an empirical comparison on Euribor Overnight Index Swap and Euribor Interest Rates Swap data between 2011 and 2021.
翻译:文献指出,Nelson-Siegel模型和Nelson-Siegel-Svensson模型因斜率和曲率分量之间的关系,可能存在称为共线性的问题。该问题的存在以及采用普通最小二乘法估计两个模型,会导致系数估计不稳定等后果。然而,这些估计被用于制定货币政策决策。因此,尝试缓解这一共线性问题至关重要。为此,部分学者提出了传统的共线性处理方法,例如:非线性优化、固定形状参数或岭回归。然而,所有这些方法均有其不足之处。作为替代方案,本文提出了一种名为提升回归的新方法,该方法具有良好的性质。最后,本文基于2011年至2021年期间的Euribor隔夜指数互换和Euribor利率互换数据,通过实证比较对上述方法进行了说明。