In this paper we propose a model selection approach to fit a regression model using splines with a variable number of knots. We introduce a penalized criterion to estimate the number and the position of the knots where to anchor the splines basis. The method is evaluated on simulated data and applied to covid-19 daily reported cases for short-term prediction.

翻译：在本文中,我们建议采用示范选择方法,使用带有可变节数的样条来适应回归模型;我们引入了一种惩罚性标准,用以估计锚定样条基点的结数和位置;该方法根据模拟数据进行评估,并用于对每天报告的19个案例进行短期预测。