In computational science and data analytics, many workloads involve irregular and sparse computations that are inherently difficult to optimize for modern hardware. A key kernel is Sparse General Matrix-Matrix Multiplication (SpGEMM), which underpins simulations, graph analytics, and machine learning applications. SpGEMM exhibits irregular memory access patterns and workload imbalance, making it challenging to achieve high performance on GPUs. Current GPU SpGEMM solutions typically rely on a two-pass workflow to address load imbalance and reduce memory access. The symbolic pass, which determines the number of output elements per row, accounts for roughly 28% of the total runtime on average. In this work, we question the necessity of exact symbolic computation and introduce an estimation-based SpGEMM workflow. Our approach replaces the costly symbolic step with lightweight HyperLogLog estimators, combined with an analysis strategy that dynamically selects the optimal workflow and guides accumulator configuration. In addition, we introduce a hybrid accumulator design, including a novel hash-based accumulator that leverages both shared and global memory. Our approach consistently outperforms leading GPU SpGEMM implementations across a wide range of both square and rectangular matrices, achieving speedups of 1.4x-2.8x on NVIDIA A100 and H100 architectures.

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