The imposition of tariffs by President Trump during his second term had far-reaching consequences for global markets, including Australia. This study investigates how both the announcement and subsequent implementation of these tariffs, specifically on 02-Apr-2025, affected the Australian stock market, focusing on the S\&P/ASX 200 index over the period from 21-Jan-2025 to 25-Jul-2025. To accurately capture the significance and behavior of market fluctuations, the exploratory data analysis (EDA) techniques are applied. Furthermore, the impact of tariffs on stock performance is evaluated using machine learning-based regression models. A comparative assessment of these models is conducted to determine their predictive accuracy and robustness in capturing tariff-related market responses.
翻译:特朗普总统在其第二任期内实施的关税政策对包括澳大利亚在内的全球市场产生了深远影响。本研究探讨了这些关税的宣布及后续实施(特别是2025年4月2日)如何影响澳大利亚股市,重点关注2025年1月21日至2025年7月25日期间的S&P/ASX 200指数。为准确捕捉市场波动的显著性及行为特征,本研究应用了探索性数据分析(EDA)技术。此外,通过基于机器学习的回归模型评估了关税对股票表现的影响。通过对这些模型进行比较评估,以确定其在捕捉关税相关市场反应方面的预测准确性和稳健性。