In this paper, we employ a Bayesian approach to assess the reliability of a critical component in the Mars Sample Return program, focusing on the Earth Entry System's risk of containment not assured upon reentry. Our study uses Gaussian Process modeling under a Bayesian regime to analyze the Earth Entry System's resilience against operational stress. This Bayesian framework allows for a detailed probabilistic evaluation of the risk of containment not assured, indicating the feasibility of meeting the mission's stringent safety goal of 0.999999 probability of success. The findings underscore the effectiveness of Bayesian methods for complex uncertainty quantification analyses of computer simulations, providing valuable insights for computational reliability analysis in a risk-averse setting.

翻译：本文采用贝叶斯方法评估火星样本返回计划中关键组件的可靠性，重点关注地球进入系统在再入过程中"防护未确保"的风险。研究在贝叶斯框架下运用高斯过程建模，分析地球进入系统对抗运行应力的稳健性。该贝叶斯框架支持对"防护未确保"风险进行精细的概率评估，结果表明实现任务严苛的安全目标——0.999999的成功概率——具备可行性。研究结果凸显了贝叶斯方法在计算机模拟复杂不确定性量化分析中的有效性，为风险规避背景下的计算可靠性分析提供了重要见解。