As the core of the Knowledge Tracking (KT) task, assessing students' dynamic mastery of knowledge concepts is crucial for both offline teaching and online educational applications. Since students' mastery of knowledge concepts is often unlabeled, existing KT methods rely on the implicit paradigm of historical practice to mastery of knowledge concepts to students' responses to practices to address the challenge of unlabeled concept mastery. However, purely predicting student responses without imposing specific constraints on hidden concept mastery values does not guarantee the accuracy of these intermediate values as concept mastery values. To address this issue, we propose a principled approach called Counterfactual Monotonic Knowledge Tracing (CMKT), which builds on the implicit paradigm described above by using a counterfactual assumption to constrain the evolution of students' mastery of knowledge concepts.

翻译：作为知识追踪（Knowledge Tracking, KT）任务的核心，评估学生对知识概念的动态掌握程度对于线下教学与在线教育应用均至关重要。由于学生对知识概念的掌握程度通常缺乏标注，现有KT方法依赖“历史练习→知识概念掌握→学生作答表现”这一隐含范式，以应对概念掌握程度未标注的挑战。然而，若仅通过预测学生作答表现而不对隐含的概念掌握值施加特定约束，则无法保证这些中间值作为概念掌握值的准确性。针对该问题，我们提出一种名为“反事实单调性知识追踪”（Counterfactual Monotonic Knowledge Tracing, CMKT）的原则性方法。该方法基于上述隐含范式，通过引入反事实假设来约束学生对知识概念掌握程度的演化过程。