How many workers displaced by automation can realistically transition to safer jobs? We answer this using a validated knowledge graph of 9,978 Egyptian job postings, 19,766 skill activities, and 84,346 job-skill relationships (0.74% error rate). While 20.9% of jobs face high automation risk, we find that only 24.4% of at-risk workers have viable transition pathways--defined by $\geq$3 shared skills and $\geq$50% skill transfer. The remaining 75.6% face a structural mobility barrier requiring comprehensive reskilling, not incremental upskilling. Among 4,534 feasible transitions, process-oriented skills emerge as the highest-leverage intervention, appearing in 15.6% of pathways. These findings challenge optimistic narratives of seamless workforce adaptation and demonstrate that emerging economies require active pathway creation, not passive skill matching.

翻译：被自动化取代的劳动者中，有多少人能够切实过渡到更安全的岗位？我们通过一个经验证的知识图谱回答了这一问题，该图谱包含9,978个埃及招聘岗位、19,766项技能活动以及84,346条岗位-技能关联关系（错误率为0.74%）。尽管有20.9%的岗位面临较高的自动化风险，但我们发现仅有24.4%的高风险劳动者具备可行的转型路径——该路径定义为共享技能数≥3项且技能可迁移率≥50%。其余75.6%的劳动者面临着结构性流动障碍，需要全面的技能重塑，而非渐进式的技能提升。在4,534条可行转型路径中，流程导向型技能显示出最高的干预杠杆效应，出现在15.6%的路径中。这些发现挑战了关于劳动力无缝适应的乐观论述，并证明新兴经济体需要主动创建转型路径，而非被动进行技能匹配。