We present a conformal inference method for constructing lower prediction bounds for survival times from right-censored data, extending recent approaches designed for type-I censoring. This method imputes unobserved censoring times using a suitable model, and then analyzes the imputed data using weighted conformal inference. This approach is theoretically supported by an asymptotic double robustness property. Empirical studies on simulated and real data sets demonstrate that our method is more robust than existing approaches in challenging settings where the survival model may be inaccurate, while achieving comparable performance in easier scenarios.
翻译:本文提出了一种保形推断方法,用于基于右删失数据构建生存时间的下预测界,该方法扩展了近期针对I型删失设计的现有方法。本方法首先通过合适的模型对未观测到的删失时间进行插补,随后使用加权保形推断对插补后的数据进行分析。该方法的理论依据源于其渐近双重鲁棒性质。在模拟和真实数据集上的实证研究表明,在生存模型可能不准确的复杂场景中,本方法比现有方法具有更强的鲁棒性,同时在简单场景中仍能保持相当的性能。