The rapid spread of rumors in social media is mainly caused by individual retweets. This paper applies uncertainty time series analysis (UTSA) to analyze a rumor retweeting behavior on Weibo. First, the rumor forwarding is modeled using uncertain time series, including order selection, parameter estimation, residual analysis, uncertainty hypothesis testing and forecast, and the validity of using uncertain time series analysis is further supported by analyzing the characteristics of the residual plot. The experimental results show that the uncertain time series can better predict the next stage of rumor forwarding. The results of the study have important practical significance for rumor management and the management of social media information dissemination.

翻译：社交网络中谣言的快速传播主要是由个体的转发行为造成的。本文应用不确定性时间序列分析（UTSA）对微博上的谣言转发行为进行了分析。首先，利用不确定时间序列对谣言转发进行建模，包括阶数选择、参数估计、残差分析、不确定性假设检验与预测，并通过分析残差图的特性进一步验证了使用不确定时间序列分析的有效性。实验结果表明，不确定时间序列能够更好地预测谣言下一阶段的转发情况。研究结果对于谣言管理以及社交媒体信息传播的管理具有重要的现实意义。