Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) communication is intended to improve road safety through distributed information sharing; however, this type of system faces a design challenge: it is difficult to predict and optimize how human agents will respond to the introduction of this information. Bayesian games are a standard approach for modeling such scenarios; in a Bayesian game, agents probabilistically adopt various types on the basis of a fixed, known distribution. Agents in such models ostensibly perform Bayesian inference, which may not be a reasonable cognitive demand for most humans. To complicate matters, the information provided to agents is often implicitly dependent on agent behavior, meaning that the distribution of agent types is a function of the behavior of agents (i.e., the type distribution is endogenous). In this paper, we study an existing model of V2V communication, but relax it along two dimensions: first, we pose a behavior model which does not require human agents to perform Bayesian inference; second, we pose an equilibrium model which avoids the challenging endogenous recursion. Surprisingly, we show that the simplified non-Bayesian behavior model yields the exact same equilibrium behavior as the original Bayesian model, which may lend credibility to Bayesian models. However, we also show that the original endogenous equilibrium model is strictly necessary to obtain certain informational paradoxes; these paradoxes do not appear in the simpler exogenous model. This suggests that standard Bayesian game models with fixed type distributions are not sufficient to express certain important phenomena.

翻译：车辆间通信（V2V）旨在通过分布式信息共享提升道路安全；然而，此类系统面临一项设计挑战：难以预测和优化人类主体对信息引入的响应。贝叶斯博弈是建模这类场景的标准方法：在贝叶斯博弈中，主体基于固定且已知的分布，以概率方式采纳不同类型。此类模型中的主体需执行贝叶斯推理，这对大多数人类而言可能是不合理的认知需求。更复杂的是，提供给主体的信息往往隐含地依赖于主体行为，这意味着主体类型的分布是主体行为的函数（即类型分布是内生的）。本文研究了一个现有的V2V通信模型，但在两个维度上对其进行简化：首先，提出一个无需人类主体执行贝叶斯推理的行为模型；其次，提出一个避免复杂内生递归的均衡模型。令人惊讶的是，我们证明简化的非贝叶斯行为模型与原贝叶斯模型产生完全相同的均衡行为，这或许为贝叶斯模型的可信度提供了佐证。然而，我们也证明原始内生均衡模型对于获取某些信息悖论是严格必要的；这些悖论在更简单的外生模型中不会出现。这表明，具有固定类型分布的标准贝叶斯博弈模型不足以表达某些重要现象。