This paper introduces a rule for policy selection in the presence of estimation uncertainty, explicitly accounting for estimation risk. The rule belongs to the class of risk-aware rules on the efficient decision frontier, characterized as policies offering maximal estimated welfare for a given level of estimation risk. Among this class, the proposed rule is chosen to provide a reporting guarantee, ensuring that the welfare delivered exceeds a threshold with a pre-specified confidence level. We apply this approach to the allocation of a limited budget among social programs using estimates of their marginal value of public funds and associated standard errors.

翻译：本文提出了一种在估计不确定性存在下的策略选择规则，该规则明确考虑了估计风险。该规则属于有效决策前沿上的风险感知规则类别，其特点是在给定估计风险水平下提供最大估计福利的策略。在此类别中，所提出的规则被选择以提供报告保证，确保在预先指定的置信水平下，所实现的福利超过某个阈值。我们将此方法应用于社会项目的有限预算分配问题，利用其公共资金边际价值估计值及相关标准误差。