Penalty shootouts play a crucial role in the knockout stage of major football tournaments. Their importance has been substantially increased from the 2021/22 season, when the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) scrapped the away goals rule. Our paper examines whether the outcome of a penalty shootout can be predicted in UEFA club competitions. Based on all shootouts between 2000 and 2025, we find no evidence for the effect of the kicking order, the field of the match, or psychological momentum. In contrast to previous results, we do not detect any (positive) relationship between relative team strength and shootout success using differences in Elo ratings. Consequently, penalty shootouts seem to be close to a coin toss in top European club football.

翻译：点球大战在重大足球赛事的淘汰赛阶段扮演着关键角色。自2021/22赛季欧洲足球协会联盟（UEFA）废除客场进球规则以来，其重要性显著提升。本文探究了在UEFA俱乐部赛事中点球大战的结果是否可被预测。基于2000年至2025年间所有的点球大战数据，我们未发现踢球顺序、比赛场地或心理势能对结果产生影响。与先前研究结果相反，使用Elo评分差异衡量相对球队实力时，我们未检测到其与点球大战成功率之间存在任何（正向）关联。因此，在欧洲顶级俱乐部足球中，点球大战的结果似乎接近于抛硬币。