The lottery is a very lucrative industry. Popular fascination often focuses on the largest prizes. However, less attention has been paid to detecting unusual lottery buying behaviors at lower stakes. Our paper introduces a new model to detect illegal discounting in the North Carolina Education Lottery using statistical analysis of net gains and ticket buying habits. Nine outlying players are flagged and are further examined using a proposed stochastic model to calculate the range of their possible losses in the lottery. The unusual buying patterns of the players flagged as outliers are further confirmed using a K-means clustering analysis of lottery store visiting behaviors.
翻译:彩票是一个非常盈利的行业。公众的关注往往聚焦于最高奖项。然而,在低赌注层面检测异常购彩行为却较少受到关注。本文提出了一种新模型,通过净收益与购彩习惯的统计分析,检测北卡罗来纳教育彩票中的非法折扣行为。我们标记了九名异常玩家,并利用所提出的随机模型进一步计算他们在彩票中可能损失的范围。通过彩票店访问行为的K-means聚类分析,进一步确认了这些被标记为异常玩家的非常规购彩模式。