We introduce an innovative methodology to identify football players at the origin of threatening actions in a team. In our framework, a threat is defined as entering the opposing team's danger area. We investigate the timing of threat events and ball touches of players, and capture their correlation using Hawkes processes. Our model-based approach allows us to evaluate a player's ability to create danger both directly and through interactions with teammates. We define a new index, called Generation of Threat (GoT), that measures in an unbiased way the contribution of a player to threat generation. For illustration, we present a detailed analysis of Chelsea's 2016-2017 season, with a standout performance from Eden Hazard. We are able to credit each player for his involvement in danger creation and determine the main circuits leading to threat. In the same spirit, we investigate the danger generation process of Stade Rennais in the 2021-2022 season. Furthermore, we establish a comprehensive ranking of Ligue 1 players based on their generated threat in the 2021-2022 season. Our analysis reveals surprising results, with players such as Jason Berthomier, Moses Simon and Frederic Guilbert among the top performers in the GoT rankings. We also present a ranking of Ligue 1 central defenders in terms of generation of threat and confirm the great performance of some center-back pairs, such as Nayef Aguerd and Warmed Omari.
翻译:我们提出了一种创新方法,用于识别球队中发起威胁性动作的足球运动员。在本框架中,威胁被定义为进入对方危险区域。我们研究了威胁事件发生时间与球员触球时间之间的关联,并利用霍克斯过程捕捉其相关性。这种基于模型的方法使我们能够评估球员直接创造威胁的能力,以及通过队友互动间接创造威胁的能力。我们定义了一个名为"威胁生成(GoT)"的新指标,以无偏方式衡量球员对威胁生成的贡献。为示例说明,我们详细分析了切尔西2016-2017赛季的表现,其中埃登·阿扎尔的发挥尤为突出。我们成功量化了每位球员在创造危险中的参与度,并确定了导致威胁的主要进攻线路。基于相同思路,我们研究了雷恩体育俱乐部2021-2022赛季的危险生成过程。此外,我们根据2021-2022赛季法甲联赛球员的威胁生成能力建立了综合排名。分析结果令人惊讶:杰森·贝托米耶、摩西·西蒙和弗雷德里克·吉尔伯特等球员在GoT排名中名列前茅。我们还展示了法甲中后卫的威胁生成排名,并验证了纳伊夫·阿格尔德与瓦梅德·奥马里等中卫组合的出色表现。