The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) across contemporary industries is not just a technological upgrade but a transformation with profound structural implications. This paper explores the concept of structural risks associated with the rapid integration of advanced AI systems across social, economic, and political systems. This framework challenges the conventional perspectives that primarily focus on direct AI threats such as accidents and misuse and suggests that these more proximate risks are interconnected and influenced by a larger sociotechnical system. By analyzing the interactions between technological advancements and social dynamics, this study isolates three primary categories of structural risk: antecedent structural causes, antecedent system causes, and deleterious feedback loops. We present a comprehensive framework to understand the causal chains that drive these risks, highlighting the interdependence between structural forces and the more proximate risks of misuse and system failures. The paper articulates how unchecked AI advancement can reshape power dynamics, trust, and incentive structures, leading to profound and often unpredictable shifts. We introduce a methodological research agenda for mapping, simulating, and gaming these dynamics aimed at preparing policymakers and national security officials for the challenges posed by next-generation AI technologies. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.

翻译：人工智能（AI）在当代各行业的整合不仅是一次技术升级，更是一场具有深远结构性影响的变革。本文探讨了高级AI系统在社会、经济和政治系统中快速整合所带来的结构性风险概念。这一框架挑战了主要关注事故和滥用等直接AI威胁的传统视角，并指出这些更直接的风险是相互关联的，且受到更大的社会技术系统影响。通过分析技术进步与社会动态之间的相互作用，本研究分离出三类主要的结构性风险：前因结构性诱因、前因系统性诱因以及有害反馈循环。我们提出了一个理解驱动这些风险的因果链的综合性框架，强调了结构性力量与滥用和系统故障等更直接风险之间的相互依存关系。本文阐述了不受约束的AI发展如何重塑权力动态、信任和激励结构，从而导致深刻且往往不可预测的转变。我们引入了一项方法论研究议程，旨在通过映射、模拟和推演这些动态，为政策制定者和国家安全官员应对下一代AI技术带来的挑战做好准备。文章最后提出了政策建议。