项目名称： 冰雪条件耦合作用下城市道路交通系统脆弱性时空演化研究

项目编号： No.71471046

项目类型： 面上项目

立项/批准年度： 2015

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 冷军强

作者单位： 哈尔滨工业大学

项目金额： 54万元

中文摘要： 受冰雪条件影响，道路交通系统脆弱性日益突出，直接影响人们日常工作生活，甚至影响国民经济正常运行，危及人们生命财产安全。冰雪条件下的交通流特性以及交通系统耦合作用机制均异于日常。以往脆弱性研究中，对极端天气条件下的耦合作用及脆弱性时空演化均较少涉及。本项目拟着重研究冰雪条件下考虑耦合作用的网络交通流脆弱性问题。首先，在分析冰雪条件下交通流动态特征基础上，建立交通流模型和可以综合考虑冰雪条件下多因素耦合作用的动态交通分配模型；其次，对所建交通流模型进行线性、非线性稳定性分析及数值模拟仿真，再现冰雪条件下车辆停停走走的现象，挖掘脆弱性的形成与演化机理；对所建动态交通分配及脆弱性模型，利用实测数据标定主要参数，并进行仿真和数值计算，揭示冰雪条件下脆弱性时空演化规律；最后，提出降低、控制脆弱性的策略与方法，并进行实证分析。本项目预期成果将为寒地城市路网设计、交通管理与控制提供理论基础和科学依据。

中文关键词： 脆弱性；网络交通流；动态交通分配；耦合；冰雪条件

英文摘要： Vulnerability of road traffic system under ice and snowfall conditions has become increasingly prominent, which affects people's daily life directly. In severe cases, it may affect the normal operation of the national economy, endanger the life and property safety of domestic. Under ice and snowfall conditions, both of the traffic flow characteristic and the coupling effect mechanism of traffic system are different from those of daily. In the past, vulnerability researches about the coupling effect and the spatio-temporal evolution regularities of vulnerability under extreme weather conditions are less involved. In this project, we emphatically study the problems about network traffic flow vulnerability considering coupling effect under snow and ice conditions. Firstly, based on the analysis of dynamic characteristics of traffic flow under snow and ice conditions, we establish the traffic flow model and the dynamic traffic assignment model of poly-factors coupling. Secondly, via stability analysis, numbered analog simulation, linear and non-linear analysis, we have a more comprehensive understanding of the established car-following model, and reproduce the stop-go-stop behavior under snow and ice conditions and grasp the mechanism of vulnerability evolution. Similarly, we calibrate the main parameters of the dynamic traffic assignment and vulnerability models with the field observation data, and by means of simulation and numerical calculation, we study the spatio-temporal evolution of vulnerability of urban road traffic system under snow and ice conditions. Finally, we propose some effective strategies and methodology to reduce and control vulnerability, and verify the proposed methodology with a real case. The expectable results of this project can provide the theoretical basis and scientific foundation for network design, traffic management and control in cold regions.

英文关键词： vulnerability;network traffic flow;dynamic traffic assignment;couple;ice and snowfall conditions