The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a reduction in business and routine activity and resulted in less motor fuel consumption. Thus, the gas tax revenue is reduced which is the major funding resource supporting the rehabilitation and maintenance of transportation infrastructure systems. The focus of this study is to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transportation infrastructure funds in the United States through analyzing the motor fuel consumption data. Machine learning models were developed by integrating COVID-19 scenarios, fuel consumptions, and demographic data. The best model achieves an R2-score of more than 95% and captures the fluctuations of fuel consumption during the pandemic. Using the developed model, we project future motor gas consumption for each state. For some states, the gas tax revenues are going to be 10%-15% lower than the pre-pandemic level for at least one or two years.

翻译：2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行导致商业和日常活动减少，进而降低了机动车燃料消耗量。因此，作为支持交通基础设施系统修复与维护主要资金来源的燃油税收入相应减少。本研究重点通过分析机动车燃料消耗数据，评估COVID-19大流行对美国交通基础设施资金的影响。研究通过整合COVID-19情景数据、燃料消耗数据和人口统计数据，开发了机器学习模型。最优模型的R2分数超过95%，能够准确捕捉疫情期间燃料消耗的波动特征。基于所开发的模型，我们预测了各州未来的机动车燃料消耗量。对于部分州而言，其燃油税收入在未来一至两年内将持续低于疫情前水平10%-15%。