Cities thrive on social interactions that foster well-being, innovation, and prosperity; yet, exogenous shocks such as pandemics, hurricanes, and wildfires can severely disrupt them. Different urban venues exhibit widely divergent response patterns, raising key questions about what factors contribute to these differences and how we can anticipate and respond. Understanding these questions is crucial for safeguarding social resilience, the capacity of urban venues to maintain both visitation and diversity. In this study, we analyze large-scale human mobility data from 15 US cities covering more than 103 million residents across three distinct urban shocks. Despite a general trend of declining visitation and weakened social mixing, 36.28%-53.01% of venues exhibit reduced segregation, and 21.04%-38.55% of venues exhibit increased visitation. By constructing a mobility network interlinking types of urban venues, we reveal that eigenvector network centrality tends to indicate the provision of essential services and robustly predicts social resilience across varied urban shocks. Specifically, centrality elevates the explanatory power by more than 80% in predicting both segregation and mobility change, compared with more intuitive features. Furthermore, compared to peripheral venues, core venues featuring shorter visit distances, broader neighborhood visitation, shorter visitor dwell times, and steadier popularity throughout the day. Such patterns imply a dual social mechanism: core venues sustain social ties through frequent informal interaction, while peripheral ones facilitate deeper engagement around specialized interests and their corresponding social circles. By bridging urban mobility research with economic theories that distinguish staple from discretionary products, we propose a well-and-pool analogy that suggests how people spend their varying urban mobility budgets.
翻译:城市繁荣依赖于促进福祉、创新与繁荣的社会互动;然而,诸如疫情、飓风和野火等外生冲击可能严重破坏这些互动。不同的城市场所表现出差异巨大的响应模式,这引发了关于哪些因素导致了这些差异以及我们如何预测和应对的关键问题。理解这些问题对于维护社会韧性——即城市场所维持访问量和多样性的能力——至关重要。在本研究中,我们分析了来自15个美国城市的大规模人类移动数据,覆盖超过1.03亿居民,并跨越三种不同的城市冲击。尽管存在访问量下降和社会混合减弱的总趋势,但仍有36.28%-53.01%的场所表现出隔离减少,21.04%-38.55%的场所表现出访问量增加。通过构建一个连接各类城市场所的移动性网络,我们发现特征向量网络中心性往往指示了基本服务的提供,并能稳健地预测不同城市冲击下的社会韧性。具体而言,与更直观的特征相比,中心性在预测隔离和移动变化方面的解释力提升了80%以上。此外,与边缘场所相比,核心场所具有更短的访问距离、更广泛的邻近区域访问、更短的访客停留时间以及全天更稳定的受欢迎程度。此类模式暗示了一种双重社会机制:核心场所通过频繁的非正式互动维持社会联系,而边缘场所则围绕专业兴趣及其相应的社交圈促进更深层次的参与。通过将城市移动性研究与区分必需品和可选品的经济理论相连接,我们提出了一个"井与池"的类比,以阐释人们如何分配其不同的城市移动性预算。