A clinical trial can establish an intervention's effects while leaving their causal pathways unresolved. We call causal discernment the practice of identifying explanations that fit the evidence but imply different decisions or research directions, and seeking studies that distinguish them. METHOD: We combine causal graphs and prose around four questions: delivery of the intended target change, routes of benefit and harm, stability of causal relations across regimes, and whether unresolved pathways could change the decision. With quantitative assumptions, graphs support plausible reasoning by showing which findings could distinguish explanations even when effects are not identified. Prose specifies clinical meaning, effect size and timing, and supporting evidence. We use conceptual analysis, hypothetical calculations, CAST and lipid-lowering therapy. SUBSTANTIVE RESULTS: Concordant coronary associations for HMGCR and PCSK9 perturbations support LDL mediation over target-specific explanations predicting unequal effects per unit of LDL reduction, but leave a shared receptor pathway possible. Diabetes associations leave LDL lowering, receptor-mediated uptake and weight gain as possible explanations. An illustrative causal record specifies a genetic comparison and assumptions under which it could distinguish them. CONCLUSION: The causal record formalises the reasoning behind the choice of the next study by making competing explanations, evidence and assumptions explicit and stating what each design could resolve. Prepared before a design or recommendation is adopted, it enables scrutiny of that reasoning and interpretation of results in relation to the stated explanations. Its added value over ordinary rationale review remains to be assessed.

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