The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technologies, particularly in recent years, has led to the emergence of several large parameter artificial intelligence weather forecast models. These models represent a significant breakthrough, overcoming the limitations of traditional numerical weather prediction models and indicating the emergence of profound potential tools for atmosphere-ocean forecasts. This study explores the evolution of these advanced artificial intelligence forecast models, and based on the identified commonalities, proposes the "Three Large Rules" to measure their development. We discuss the potential of artificial intelligence in revolutionizing numerical weather prediction, and briefly outlining the underlying reasons for its great potential. While acknowledging the high accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of deployment of large artificial intelligence forecast models, we also emphasize the irreplaceable values of traditional numerical forecasts and explore the challenges in the future development of large-scale artificial intelligence atmosphere-ocean forecast models. We believe that the optimal future of atmosphere-ocean weather forecast lies in achieving a seamless integration of artificial intelligence and traditional numerical models. Such a synthesis is anticipated to offer a more advanced and reliable approach for improved atmosphere-ocean forecasts. Additionally, we illustrate how forecasters can adapt and leverage the advanced artificial intelligence model through an example by building a large artificial intelligence model for global ocean wave forecast.

翻译：近年来，人工智能技术的快速进步，特别是大参数人工智能天气预报模型的涌现，代表着重大突破，克服了传统数值天气预报模型的局限，预示着大气-海洋预报领域涌现出极具潜力的新型工具。本研究探讨了这些先进人工智能预报模型的演进历程，并基于其共性特征，提出了衡量其发展的"三大规律"。我们论述了人工智能在革新数值天气预报方面的潜力，并简要勾勒其巨大潜力背后的深层原因。在肯定大规模人工智能预报模型高精度、高计算效率与易部署优势的同时，我们也强调了传统数值预报的不可替代价值，并探讨了大规模人工智能大气-海洋预报模型未来发展中面临的挑战。我们认为，大气-海洋天气预报的最优前景在于实现人工智能与传统数值模型的深度有机融合，这种综合体系有望为改善大气-海洋预报提供更先进、更可靠的方法。此外，我们通过构建全球海浪预报的人工智能模型实例，阐述了预报人员如何适应并利用先进的人工智能模型。