Climate change is expected to significantly affect the physical, financial, and economic environments over the long term, posing risks to the financial health of general insurers. While general insurers typically use Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA) for a comprehensive view of financial impacts, traditional DFA as presented in the literature does not consider the impact of climate change. To address this gap, we introduce a climate-dependent DFA approach that integrates climate risk into DFA, providing a holistic assessment of the long-term impact of climate change on the general insurance industry. The proposed framework has three key features. First, it captures the long-term impact of climate change on the assets and liabilities of general insurers by considering both physical and economic dimensions across different climate scenarios within an interconnected structure. Second, it addresses the uncertainty of climate change impacts using stochastic simulations within climate scenario analysis that are useful for actuarial applications. Finally, the framework is tailored to the general insurance sector by addressing its unique characteristics. To demonstrate the practical application of our model, we conduct an extensive empirical study using Australian data to assess the long-term financial impact of climate change on the general insurance market under various climate scenarios. The results show that the interaction between economic growth and physical risk plays a key role in shaping general insurers' risk-return profiles. Limitations of our framework are thoroughly discussed.

翻译：气候变化预计将在长期内显著影响自然、金融和经济环境，对一般保险公司的财务健康状况构成风险。尽管一般保险公司通常使用动态财务分析来全面评估财务影响，但文献中提出的传统动态财务分析并未考虑气候变化的影响。为弥补这一不足，我们提出了一种依赖气候的动态财务分析方法，将气候风险整合到动态财务分析中，从而对气候变化给一般保险行业带来的长期影响提供整体评估。所提出的框架具有三个关键特征。首先，它通过在一个相互关联的结构中考虑不同气候情景下的自然和经济维度，捕捉了气候变化对一般保险公司资产和负债的长期影响。其次，它利用气候情景分析中的随机模拟来处理气候变化影响的不确定性，这对精算应用具有实用价值。最后，该框架通过针对一般保险行业的独特特征进行了定制。为了展示我们模型的实际应用，我们使用澳大利亚数据进行了广泛的实证研究，以评估在各种气候情景下气候变化对一般保险市场的长期财务影响。结果表明，经济增长与自然风险之间的相互作用在塑造一般保险公司的风险-回报特征方面起着关键作用。我们还深入讨论了本框架的局限性。