This paper evaluates the cost competitiveness of microreactors in today's electricity markets, with a focus on uncertainties in reactor costs. A Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to optimize key technical parameters, such as reactor capacity, fuel enrichment, tail enrichment, refueling interval, and discharge burnup, to minimize the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). Base case results are validated using Simulated Annealing (SA). By incorporating Probability Distribution Functions (PDFs) for fuel cycle costs, the study identifies optimal configurations under uncertainty. Methodologically, it introduces a novel framework combining probabilistic cost modeling with evolutionary optimization. Results show that microreactors can remain cost-competitive, with LCOEs ranging from \$48.21/MWh to \$78.32/MWh when supported by the Production Tax Credit (PTC). High reactor capacity, low fuel enrichment, moderate tail enrichment and refueling intervals, and high discharge burnup enhance cost efficiency. Among all factors, overnight capital cost (OCC) has the most significant impact on LCOE, while O&M and fuel cost uncertainties have lesser effects. The analysis highlights how energy policies like the PTC can reduce LCOE by 22-24%, improving viability despite cost variability. Compared to conventional nuclear, coal, and renewable sources like offshore wind, hydro, and biomass, optimized microreactors show strong economic potential. This research defines a realistic design space and key trade-offs, offering actionable insights for policymakers, reactor designers, and energy planners aiming to accelerate the deployment of affordable, sustainable microreactors.

翻译：本文评估了微反应堆在当前电力市场中的成本竞争力，重点关注反应堆成本的不确定性。研究采用遗传算法（GA）优化关键技术参数，包括反应堆容量、燃料富集度、尾料富集度、换料周期和卸料燃耗，以最小化平准化度电成本（LCOE）。基准案例结果通过模拟退火算法（SA）进行验证。通过引入燃料循环成本的概率分布函数（PDFs），本研究识别了不确定性条件下的最优配置。在方法论上，本文提出了一种结合概率成本建模与进化优化的新颖框架。结果表明，在生产税收抵免（PTC）政策支持下，微反应堆能够保持成本竞争力，其LCOE范围在48.21美元/MWh至78.32美元/MWh之间。较高的反应堆容量、较低的燃料富集度、适中的尾料富集度与换料周期以及较高的卸料燃耗有助于提升成本效益。在所有因素中， overnight capital cost（OCC）对LCOE的影响最为显著，而运维成本与燃料成本不确定性的影响相对较小。分析表明，PTC等能源政策可使LCOE降低22-24%，从而在成本波动背景下提升微反应堆的可行性。与常规核能、煤电以及海上风电、水电、生物质能等可再生能源相比，经过优化的微反应堆展现出强劲的经济潜力。本研究界定了现实的设计空间与关键权衡关系，为政策制定者、反应堆设计者和能源规划者提供了可操作的见解，以推动经济可持续的微反应堆的加速部署。