Long-horizon dialogue agents need to keep user memories stable enough for personalization while adapting when the user genuinely changes. Existing memory systems often append every observation or overwrite old entries by heuristic rules, which makes transient noise hard to distinguish from real belief drift. We introduce PreCoMem, a memory consolidation framework inspired by predictive coding that represents memory as confidence-weighted beliefs about the user's state. Its core signal, Effective Surprisal, combines semantic deviation and contradiction evidence, then downweights this signal when retrieval is diffuse and unreliable. According to effective surprisal, a two-threshold gate maps each turn to one of three deterministic updates: MAINTAIN reinforces supported beliefs, PROFILE stores ambiguous cues as low-confidence hypotheses, and CORRECT softly decays reliably contradicted facts. The PROFILE stage acts as an explicit waiting room, preventing premature commitment to noisy evidence. Experiments on LoCoMo, LongMemEval-S, and PersonaMem-v2 show consistent state-of-the-art accuracy; our new DiMoBench confirms that PreCoMem adapts to non-stationary belief drift without over-reacting to noise. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhongWishing/PreCoMem.

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