We define Poisson process models for outage and restore processes in power system resilience events in terms of their rates. These outage and restore processes easily yield the performance curves that track the evolution of resilience events, and their area, nadir and duration are standard resilience metrics. We derive explicit and intuitive formulas for these metrics for mean performance curves in terms of the model parameters; these parameters can be estimated from utility data. This clarifies the calculation of metrics of typical resilience events, and shows what they depend on. We give examples of the metric formulas using a typical model of transmission system outages with lognormal rate restoration, and also for constant rate and exponential rate restorations. We give similarly nice formulas for the area metric for empirical power system data.
翻译:我们根据停电和恢复过程的速率,定义了描述电力系统韧性事件中停电与恢复过程的泊松过程模型。这些停电与恢复过程能够轻松生成追踪韧性事件演变的性能曲线,且这些曲线的面积、最低点及持续时间是标准的韧性指标。我们推导出了基于模型参数的这些指标在均值性能曲线下的显式且直观的公式;这些参数可通过公用事业数据估算。这阐明了典型韧性事件指标的计算方法,并揭示了其依赖因素。我们以包含对数正态速率恢复的典型输电系统停运模型为例,给出了指标公式的应用示例,同时展示了恒定速率恢复与指数速率恢复的案例。针对经验电力系统数据,我们还给出了与面积指标类似的简洁公式。