Mean plane measurements of the Kuiper Belt from observational data are of interest for their potential to test dynamical models of the solar system. Recent measurements have yielded inconsistent results. Here we report a measurement of the Kuiper Belt's mean plane with a sample size more than twice as large as in previous measurements. The sample of interest is the non-resonant Kuiper belt objects, which we identify by using machine learning on the observed Kuiper Belt population whose orbits are well-determined. We estimate the measurement error with a Monte Carlo procedure. We find that the overall mean plane of the non-resonant Kuiper Belt (semimajor axis range 35-150 au) and also that of the classical Kuiper Belt (semimajor axis range 42-48 au) are both close to (within about 0.7 degrees) but distinguishable from the invariable plane of the solar system to greater than 99.7% confidence. When binning the sample into smaller semimajor axis bins, we find the measured mean plane mostly consistent with both the invariable plane and the theoretically expected Laplace surface forced by the known planets. Statistically significant discrepancies are found only in the semimajor axis ranges 40.3-42 au and 45-50 au; these ranges are in proximity to a secular resonance and Neptune's 2:1 mean motion resonance where the theory for the Laplace surface is likely to be inaccurate. These results do not support a previously reported anomalous warp at semimajor axes above 50 au.

翻译：通过对观测数据进行柯伊伯带平均平面测量，有望检验太阳系动力学模型。近年来的测量结果存在不一致性。本文利用样本量超过先前测量两倍以上的数据，对柯伊伯带的平均平面进行测量。研究目标为非共振柯伊伯带天体，我们通过机器学习方法从轨道已精确测定的观测柯伊伯带种群中识别出这些天体。采用蒙特卡洛程序估算测量误差。研究发现，非共振柯伊伯带（半长轴范围35-150 au）以及经典柯伊伯带（半长轴范围42-48 au）的整体平均平面均接近（相差约0.7度以内）太阳系不变平面，但以超过99.7%置信度可与之区分。将样本按半长轴分箱后，发现测量所得平均平面与不变平面及已知行星作用下理论预期的拉普拉斯曲面基本吻合。仅在40.3-42 au和45-50 au半长轴范围内存在统计显著偏差，这些区域邻近长期共振和海王星2:1平均运动共振，该处的拉普拉斯曲面理论可能不再精确。本结果不支持此前报道的半长轴超过50 au处的异常翘曲现象。