The ICT sector has been one of the most successful and fastest-growing industry in history. While the environmental issue in this sector has mainly been addressed by assessing its footprint and, to a lesser extent, its avoided emissions or net impacts, the additional emissions from the digitalization of carbon-intensive activities, such as the Oil and Gas (O&G) sector, have rarely been discussed. By doing so, we have forgotten to count the own goals conceded over more than 20 years in the troubled relationship between the ICT and the O&G sector. Using input-output analysis and economic data ranging from 2000 to 2022, we observe that on average 2% of the annual financial flows from the ICT sector are directed towards the Oil and Gas sector. Considering the significant growth of the ICT sector during this time, O&G companies now spends a massive amount on ICT products in absolute terms. It also appears that in 2022, for each dollar going from the ICT sector to the renewable and nuclear energy industry, more than $4 go to the O&G industry. In addition, we also provide a classification of digital activities in the O&G sector to facilitate environmental assessments and present two case studies estimating potential added emissions from the digitalization of oil activities. Finally, looking at the immense growth in generative AI, we provide an exploration of causal links between the current success of GPU technology and its intricate early relationship with the O&G sector. This article lays the groundwork for defining the nature of the relationship between ICT and O&G, which predates the current hype surrounding generative AI. We provide the analytical elements needed to begin estimating the added emissions from the digitalisation of O&G.
翻译:信息通信技术(ICT)行业是历史上最成功且增长最快的产业之一。尽管该行业的环境问题主要通过评估其碳足迹、较少涉及减排效益或净影响来应对,但碳密集型活动(如油气行业)数字化所衍生的额外排放却鲜有讨论。这种忽视导致我们遗漏了ICT与油气行业二十余年纠结关系中"自摆乌龙"的代价。基于2000至2022年的投入产出分析与经济数据,我们发现ICT行业年均约2%的资金流向油气领域。考虑到ICT同期的显著增长,油气企业如今在ICT产品上的绝对支出已相当可观。数据显示,2022年ICT行业流向可再生能源与核能产业的每1美元,对应超过4美元流入油气行业。此外,我们构建了油气行业数字化活动的分类体系以辅助环境评估,并通过两个案例研究估算了石油活动数字化可能带来的额外排放。最终,针对生成式AI的爆发式增长,我们探析了GPU技术当前成就与其早期与油气行业微妙关联之间的因果链条。本文为界定ICT与油气行业的关系本质奠定基础——这种关系远早于当前生成式AI热潮,并提供了评估油气行业数字化额外排放所需的解析框架。